This is not an election Budget in the sense that I might target the voter in the coming elections. But if you look beyond this round of state elections, and tilt the periscope to graze at the more distant horizon, see how the Narendra Modi government wishes things looking by the summer of 2024, observes Shekhar Gupta.
In a sudden development, the Gujarat Co-operative Milk Marketing Federation Ltd (GCMMF), which markets its products under the brand name 'Amul', on Monday ousted its long-serving Managing Director R S Sodhi but did not give any reason. However, Sodhi said he had requested the federation's board to relieve him of his duties. The federation's chief operating officer Jayenbhai Mehta has been given the interim charge of the managing director (MD).
IThe fiscal deficit target for 2020-2021 was originally set at 3.5 per cent of GDP. But the government's revenues have collapsed and its expenditure burden will only increase over the Budget estimates.' With the government having already planned for an additional borrowing of over Rs 4 trillion, the fiscal deficit for the current year would be much higher than the Budget estimate, notes A K Bhattacharya.
'But can it afford to present a scenario within the existing legal framework of fiscal consolidation?', asks A K Bhattacharya.
'I want us not to underestimate Indian voters. They can tell good work from bad.'
The Budget has to provide for capex on roads, railways, defence and other infrastructure sectors.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday said the resurgence of COVID-19 infections may delay India's economic recovery, but won't derail it, as it kept the sovereign rating unchanged at 'BBB-' with a negative outlook. It projected a 12.8 per cent recovery in GDP in the fiscal year ending March 2022 (FY22), moderating to 5.8 per cent in FY23, from an estimated contraction of 7.5 per cent in 2020-21. Fitch had in June last year revised outlook for India to 'negative' from 'stable' on grounds that the coronavirus pandemic had significantly weakened the country's growth outlook and exposed the challenges associated with a high public debt burden.
What's different this time is that global financial stress -- which has its genesis in four policy choices made in recent years -- is juxtaposed with a more resilient real economy, observes Sajjid Z Chinoy, chief India economist at J P Morgan.
It would be interesting to see what the government proposes to investors.
A parliamentary committee has pulled up the finance ministry for not adhering to Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act in cutting revenue deficit by 0.5 per cent of GDP for 2005-06 saying there should not be deviations every now and then.
States also demanded that Budget for 2015-16 should make adequate provisions for central sales tax compensation for early roll out of Goods and Services Tax, a Constitutional Amendment Bill for which was tabled in the Lok Sabha last week.
The growth momentum in India's manufacturing sector was maintained in February, with new orders and output increasing at similar rates to January, according to a monthly survey. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was at 55.3 in February, little-changed from 55.4 in January. The February PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the 20th straight month. In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 indicates contraction.
Need of the hour is to spend to grow more, the study said.
India's deployment of a direct cash transfer scheme and other similar social welfare programmes is a "logistical marvel", the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Wednesday. "From India, there is a lot to learn. There is a lot to learn from some other examples around the world. "We have examples from pretty much every continent and every level of income. "If I look at the case of India, it is actually quite impressive," Paolo Mauro, deputy director of the Fiscal Affairs Department at the IMF, told reporters at a news conference in Washington.
India's services sector growth accelerated in April, as strong demand conditions resulted in the fastest increase in new business and output in close to 13 years, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The pick-up in demand occurred in spite of escalating price pressures. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from 57.8 in March to 62.0 in April, signalling the fastest expansion in output since mid 2010, amid a pick-up in new business growth and favourable market conditions.
The government's Rs 20.97 lakh crore COVID-19 package lacks in addressing the immediate concerns of the economy as the actual fiscal impact of the additional stimulus is only about 1 per cent of the GDP as opposed to the claim of 10 per cent, Fitch Solutions said on Tuesday. Prime Minister Narendra Modi on May 12 announced a stimulus package of Rs 20 lakh crore, or nearly 10 per cent of GDP, to deal with the economic fallout of COVID-19. The contents of the package were broad-based and announced in five tranches.
Former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Tuesday said the media needs to remain vigilant and flag shortcomings of the government with a view to improve the effectiveness of governance.
Vijay Kelkar, advisor to the finance minister, has been entrusted with the new task of preparing quarterly review of the economy as mandated under the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act.
The government may take a fresh look at BPCL privatisation, including revising the terms of sale, an official said. "We need to go back to the drawing board on BPCL. "There are issues in terms of consortium formation, geopolitical situation and energy transition aspects," an official said. The government is selling its entire 52.98 per cent stake in BPCL for which three expressions of interest (EoIs), including one from billionaire Anil Agarwal-led Vedanta Group, have been received.
The rupee is likely to strengthen to 60-61 level by this fiscal-end on expectations of improvement in current account deficit (CAD) and higher inflows from overseas investors.
'The actions of Indian monetary authorities will depend on how quickly they want the inflation to come down to 4 per cent.'
The Democratic presidential candidate and his running mate John Edwards have pledged to provide fiscal responsibility in the US government.
This move will enable it to incur higher-than-mandated borrowing, and possibly spending, till the 2024 Lok Sabha election cycle.
It would also be the last policy of Rajan
The bench said it has to balance the equity and it was not against any policy of the government or the scheme.
'India is nowhere near the peak of the infection given its large population of 1.3 billion'
'Event management can distract from, but not permanently mask, execution failures,' points out Rathin Roy, director, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
The Union Budget's focus on capital expenditure is expected to crowd-in private investment and push the GDP growth rate close to 7 per cent in the next financial year beginning April 1, said a Reserve Bank article on 'State of the Economy'. In 2023-24, capital expenditure is budgeted at Rs 10 lakh crore which will constitute 3.3 per cent of GDP. "We believe that India will decouple from macroeconomic projections of current vintage and also from the rest of the world.
Unveiling far reaching fiscal reforms to improve tax mop up and wipe out revenue deficit by 2009, the Kelkar panel on Friday proposed a single countrywide goods and services tax, removal of tax exemptions and raising income tax slab to Rs 100,000.
India's manufacturing sector activity moderated in January amid slower increase in total sales, and headcounts were broadly unchanged amid sufficient staff numbers to cope with current requirements, according to a monthly survey. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell from December's recent high of 57.8 to 55.4 in January, as factory orders and production rose at sharp, albeit slower, rate. The January PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the 19th straight month.
